HCP : Economic Growth of 1.8% in Q2-2022
« Overall and taking into account a decline of 12.9% of agricultural value added, the economic activity would show an increase of 1.8% in the second quarter of 2022, in annual variation, instead of +15.2% recorded by base effect in the same quarter of 2021, » says the HCP in an economic outlook report.
The domestic demand would know, for its part, a slight acceleration in the second quarter of 2022, contributing 3,3 points to the global economic growth, specified the same source, which reports the situation of the main economic indicators observed for the fourth quarter of 2021, estimated for the first quarter of 2022 and provides the forecast for the second quarter.
It would be particularly driven by the continued strengthening of public spending, adds the HCP, noting that household spending would remain affected by continued strong inflationary pressures.
In this context, value added excluding agriculture is expected to increase by 4.1% in the second quarter of 2022, year-on-year. It would be particularly driven by the tertiary branches, whose contribution to overall economic growth would amount to +2.4 points.
In the secondary sector, mining activities are expected to return to positive growth, leading to a 2.8% increase in the value added of secondary industries.
In addition, the HCP estimates that foreign demand for the national economy would show an increase of 3.1% in the second quarter of 2022, in annual variation, instead of 20.7% during the same period last year.
« The evolution of the world economy in the second quarter of 2022 would remain dependent on the epidemiological situation in particular in China as well as the repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine conflict which would weigh on the growth prospects of the world economy over the whole year 2022 », indicates the HCP.
In addition, the rise in commodity prices, especially energy and agriculture, combined with disruptions in global supply chains should weigh on the recovery of advanced economies, the source adds.
