On the eve of the second round of early legislative elections, France is holding its breath for a pivotal vote that could usher in a new era of governance.
Following a breakthrough by the far-right party, Rassemblement National (RN), led by Jordan Bardella and its allies in the first round, predictions abound regarding the outcome of the second round and the composition of the future National Assembly, potentially shaping the next government.
The campaign week leading to the second round was marked by over 200 withdrawals from left-wing candidates gathered under the « New Popular Front » and from the presidential camp under the banner « Together, » aimed at avoiding numerous three-way contests that could favor RN in securing an absolute majority in the National Assembly.
According to an Ifop poll published on Saturday, the strategy of withdrawals might prove successful, with RN projected to obtain between 170 to 210 seats, compared to 155 to 185 for the New Popular Front, 120 to 150 for Together, and 50 to 65 for Les Républicains.
Yet, until the ballots have spoken, all scenarios remain possible.
Observers speculate that if RN secures a majority—meaning at least 289 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly—it could lead the government, potentially with Jordan Bardella as Prime Minister, marking a period of cohabitation under the Fifth Republic.
Another likely scenario is RN securing a significant relative majority, between 250 to 288 seats, which would require alliances for effective governance, akin to the current setup under Prime Minister Gabriel Attal. A similarly challenging scenario could unfold with a narrow majority, where RN’s leader might struggle to govern effectively.
Observers also envision a coalition of centrist forces forming to block RN from assuming power, including members from the presidential majority, Les Républicains, environmentalists, socialists, and even communists.
A final scenario could see an unruly National Assembly prompting the formation of a technical government as a temporary solution, passing interim budgets until fresh elections in a year’s time.
Amidst this uncertainty, and just days away from the Paris Olympics, Gabriel Attal affirmed that his government would ensure the continuity of the state « for as long as necessary. »
The Constitution also allows the President to appoint a national unity government comprising high-ranking political figures, such as the Senate President or former ministers.
Approximately 49.3 million voters are called to participate in Sunday’s second round of legislative elections. Seventy-six deputies were already elected in the first round, securing over 50% of the vote, leaving 501 seats to be filled out of the total 577 in the National Assembly. The second round will feature 1,094 candidates.
