The harsh reality has returned to France. After the enchanting pause provided by the Olympic Games, where France demonstrated exceptional organizational skills and its team achieved remarkable feats, the time for crucial political decisions has arrived. Following the snap elections, the Games offered Emmanuel Macron a brief respite, allowing him time to reflect and consult in hopes of resolving what seems like a political deadlock.
These snap elections, triggered by an unexpected dissolution, resulted in a Parliament fragmented into three major groups: the new Left Front, the presidential camp, and the National Rally. This configuration makes it structurally impossible to secure an absolute majority and form a stable government.
Upon the announcement of the results, the left claimed victory and called on Emmanuel Macron to appoint someone from their ranks to form a government. The president ignored this demand and instead urged the parties of the Republican Front to form a majority. In Macron’s view, this Republican Front should include all political parties except those from the far right and far left.
Not only was Macron’s call unheeded, but the left-wing parties also agreed to propose Lucie Castets, a senior official in the Paris City Hall, as their candidate to form a government. Chosen after lengthy negotiations by the new Left Front, she was seen as capable of succeeding Gabriel Attal. However, Macron chose to disregard this proposal and continues to seek his future Prime Minister from the ranks of the right and center.
The Olympic Games had offered the President a form of respite. His silence and inaction were justified by the Olympic truce. Now that it has ended, Macron is forced to act and make a choice. For him, appointing a left-wing Prime Minister and government is out of the question, given that they would be too fragile. Without an absolute majority, such a government could be toppled by a vote of no confidence at any moment, adding to the instability of already fragile institutions.
The key question post-Olympics is whether Macron has succeeded in forming the much-needed Republican Front that could guarantee him an absolute majority and a strong Prime Minister backed by Parliament. To achieve this, two major conditions would need to be met. The first, relatively easier, would be to convince the Republican Party to fully join the presidential camp. The second, more challenging, would be to persuade the Socialist Party to distance itself from Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise. However, neither of these conditions has been met—The Republicans are unwilling to become mere auxiliaries to Macron, especially since he has previously tried to weaken them by adopting their political platform and personnel—and the second condition remains unachievable for the time being. The various left-wing parties, despite their political differences, have managed to maintain a strategic alliance, thus burying, for now, Macron’s dream of attracting the governing left that is essential to securing an absolute majority. The New Left Front continued its work as if nothing had changed during the Olympics. Lucie Castets kept up her charm offensive, while Macron remained superbly indifferent.
The entire French political class is currently holding its breath, waiting to see what surprise the magician Emmanuel Macron might pull out of his hat to break this deadlock.
It will require great inspiration to pull the country out of the deadlock that threatens it. With a left demanding the fruits of its victory, a Republican right refusing to play the role of a supporting force, and a far-right patiently waiting for political chaos to prevail so it can seize the opportunity, Macron might continue to dramatize the threat of the far-right. However, if he fails to provide France with a Prime Minister capable of governing effectively, it is uncertain whether his strategy of dramatization will be heard or believed.
