The High Commission for Planning (HCP) reported that inflation in Morocco is expected to see a slight rise in the third quarter of 2024, following several quarters of decline. The inflation rate is projected to reach 1.2%, compared to 0.8% in the previous quarter.
In its economic outlook for the third quarter of 2024 and predictions for the fourth quarter, the HCP explained that this increase reflects a rise in food prices by 0.7%, after a 0.3% drop in the previous quarter, alongside a slowdown in non-food prices to 1.4% compared to 1.6% in the second quarter.
Core inflation, which excludes prices subject to state intervention and volatile items, is also expected to rise slightly, reaching 2.4% compared to 2.3% in the previous quarter. This trend is driven by an increase in food prices, while prices of manufactured goods gradually decrease, and service prices remain relatively stable.
The rise in food prices is largely due to an increase in meat prices, contributing one percentage point, attributed to the continued rise in red meat prices coupled with a significant rise in poultry prices during the summer period.
This trend is likely a result of a decrease in supply due to unfavorable weather conditions that impacted farms, leading to a drop in chick production and higher operational costs.
Additionally, the upward trend in food prices is also influenced, albeit to a lesser extent, by rising prices of fresh fruits (+0.4 points) and fish (+0.3 points).
Conversely, fresh vegetable prices are expected to decrease, contributing a reduction of 0.7 points, mainly due to a recovery in local supply.
Regarding non-food items, the slowdown in their price increase is linked to a decline in energy prices, with a decrease of 4.2% compared to 5% in the previous quarter, due to a 2.3% drop in petroleum product prices, following a 6.1% increase in the second quarter, despite a rise in gas prices.
Manufactured goods prices are also expected to slow slightly, increasing by 0.5% after a 0.6% rise in the previous quarter, notably due to the decline in the prices of large household appliances.
